The USAF has been busy across North America today. The USAF focused on spraying Southern James Hudson's Bay area in Canada along with spraying an area from Kansas northeastward through Minnesota. The USAF's goal appears to be to strengthen the ridge of high pressure across Southern Canada and to strengthen the Mid-Western Low pressure system across the Central US. What they are doing is slowing down the pattern for the Arctic air mass arriving across the Upper Mid-West on May 30th. By slowing up the entire storm track they will force the colder air further to the west thus sharping the SW-NE trough to a N-S and possibly creating a cut-off low pressure system across the Eastern Seaboard. My feeling is the main model the USAF uses to calculate where they will spray has erred to the warm side in it's intermediate projections. It's acting extremely goofy in the 4-6 day period right now, solutions are not consistant and sometimes mind boggling. I have a feeling there is going to be a lot of rain during the June 1-4th period across the Eastern Seaboard as the front will be held up instead of coming through like it's suppose too.
Ahem.... Fri May 25, 2007 8:43 pm
quote:
"Wed May 23, 2007 9:10 pm My weather model is picking up a modified arctic front entering the Upper Mid-West on the 30th and reaching the mid-atlantic on the 1st of June. The air mass finally kicks out of the Mid-Atlantic on the 4th... "
Would you like to read to the Audience, Kevin the time and date of that post? Would you like me to quote you on weather forecasts made by models in the 7-10 day range and their accuracy? Would you like to comment on the 5F bump on forecasted high temperatures today across the Northeastern US. Some places were in the mid to upper 90's in Maine today. Yesterday morning(before the spraying) the NWS was forecasting highs near 90. That high pressure was strengthened Kevin, the proof is in the high temperatures today.
A question Kevin... Fri May 25, 2007 8:54 pm
Take an area of 20sq miles. Say there is a weather station at an airport that is surrounded by high density commerical development on it's northside like hotels, shopping malls, etc.(a total of 4 sq miles) and surronding the airport for several miles(outside the commerical development) is older residential communities with a large amount of tree cover, roughly 70%.(total of 16 sq miles) The "offical" site is at the airport. The "unoffical" site is 2 miles away on the residential side. The Airport reaches 89F and the unoffical site reaches 86F, then at night the airport falls to 55F and the unoffical site falls to 58F. Which of the two sites has a better representaion of the region as a whole? Given this was a relatively calm day for winds. The forecaster forecasted 84/60. What is the proper way to score this?
[quote]What they are doing is slowing down the pattern for the Arctic air mass arriving across the Upper Mid-West on May 30th. By slowing up the entire storm track they will force the colder air further to the west thus sharping the SW-NE trough to a N-S and possibly creating a cut-off low pressure system across the Eastern Seaboard.[/quote]
Interesting Kevin... Models might have large swing at this time frame, but my prediction has come to life, the model has responded just as I said it would. As I've said I use their models to show how the USAF calculates where to spray and when to influence the weather patterns to their liking. All my goal is to provide scientific evidence that this is taking place. But as my saying goes, it takes the best theif to catch the second best theif.
Notice the shift in the cooler temperatures further westward.Honestly to me, this looks like nothing but a big kick back for Constellation Energy for the delay in the electricity rate hike across Maryland. Electric rates in the Baltimore-Washington region(already one of the highest in the country) jump 50% June 1st, making it the highest electric rates in the US.
dude Sat May 26, 2007 11:24 am
lmao. If your so sure that my 9 day forecast for the cold front to reach the mid-atlantic on June 1st was a rip off of the GFS, by all means look up the 9 day time frame of the 18Z May 23,2007 model. The odds of that forecast happening are less than 1 in 10 on a 9 day forecast from the GFS. Generalized weather patterns are near 1 in 6.
Sat May 26, 2007 5:27 pm
quote:
Checked it. Trough is still in the Eastern USA, with Ridging in the Western. Models will be right if it happens NOT you, and NOT because of USAF crap you are making up. Again, you are basing on the HINT the models are showing. Everyone here thinks you are some kind of god in USAF forces on weather but you are a fluke. Just another wannabee that reads weather models.
Weather modification isn't about making your own predictions, it's about taking existing weather models and using artistic abilities to figure out where and when to modify a part of the jet stream to accomplish your goals 3-5 days later. I think your jealous that I know what's going on, because if you knew this was coming why didn't you respond to it when I posted it on May 23rd, why did you wait 48 hours to comment? Was it because you weren't positive that it was coming? What did the 13 day model say huh? Did it have that piece of the cooler air ejecting from the Mid-Atlantic that day?... btw since this is now 14 days away... things really heat up for the northeast June8/9th and stay that way for a few days... Temps 88-95.
Sun May 27, 2007 8:47 pm
quote:
That's why tornado chasers are MAD. Because they saw the last model runs wayyyy back then HINTING at a Trough in the East, and Ridge in the West. This shuts off tornado alley, and brings on a monsoonal flow pattern to NM/AZ/and maybe CA/NV if it's strong enough.
Oooo wow, angry angry storm chasers. 50 million people could get a temporary relief from the drought and opportunity is there to put out the forest fires... and your worried about storm chasers income.
Sun May 27, 2007 8:54 pm
quote:
Originally posted by KevinMartin[b]Because they saw the last model runs wayyyy back then HINTING at a Trough in the East, and Ridge in the West. [/b]Just stick to reading the models, and don't lie about USAF forces doing whatever. Models show everything you claim
There you have it folks, the only reason he had a problem with me forecasting it and was two days late to the ballgame was because I went with the forecast and had the guts to before him or his chaser buddies wanted to fess upto reality. So of course he's going to bash me to make me look like I didn't know what I was talking about, or I was stealing something that had about a 1 in 10 chance of happening. The only thing you've done KM over the past two weeks is make me goto my closet and blow the dust off of my meteorological swords. Now I gotta goto the garage and start sharping them... they could use a tune up.
Mon May 28, 2007 12:08 pm
It's amazing, it really is. Most of the storm track change occured in the 18hours following my observations about what the USAF was doing and where. I originally said the front was coming through June 1st for the Mid-Atlantic. The model run at 12:35am Fri May 25,2007 showed that exactly.
As I stated in my original observation the front was going to be held up and probably not make it and create a cut off low pressure system, but generate a lot of rain for the Southeastern US.
[quote]What they are doing is slowing down the pattern for the Arctic air mass arriving across the Upper Mid-West on May 30th. By slowing up the entire storm track they will force the colder air further to the west thus sharping the SW-NE trough to a N-S and possibly creating a cut-off low pressure system across the Eastern Seaboard. [/quote]
Notice how the storm has been pushed back to the west.
Now let's look at the new computer projections. Keep in mind this is now 3 days later from our last look. See how the storm is now a cut off low and the front has washed out over the Central US. This low is expected to move eastward over the weekend.
So while Mr. Kevin continues to scream that I don't know what I'm talking about, I'm a fraud and chemtrails don't exist. How was I able to take a model run from 9 days ago(with a 1 in 10 chance of succeeding), watch what the USAF was doing in the 8 day time frame and make a forecast based on what they were doing and be right once again. Yet Chemtrails don't exist and we have to make him a believer.
explain Tue May 29, 2007 9:38 am
quote:
Weatherman714, you have been a member here for quite some time, please don't let a relatively new or returning member bait you in to continually degrading forum topic's, it's really a great waste of everyone's time.
Me laughing at his outragous comments is degrading? Me just dusting the dirt off my shoulders is degrading? If I've offended anyone because I post lol or lmao I'm sorry. Yeesh. But I do happen to have one last comment about the matter. It was evident from his first post I was his #1 target. I said it two weeks ago and it helped explain the strange message at 2am I received from him that said "quit". I just find it amusing that everytime I'm right it makes him short circut. It should seriously tell you that I must be right on how these chem's work for weather modification. lol.
see Tue May 29, 2007 12:49 pm
quote:
Again, numskull, you are NOT RIGHT. The MODELS are right. NOT YOU. Get that through your thick head to the peanut sized brain you have.
See what I mean Starman. It doesn't matter what I post, just about anything I say takes him off the deep end. It doesn't matter that I made a prediction based on where the USAF was spraying and current model data. Only for the models 18-24 hours later reflect the exact shift that I said would be caused by what the USAF was doing. Yet in his mind he doesn't make the connection, which leads me to believe that someone is paying him to do this, because what he is claiming I'm doing is completely illogical or I have some sort of telepathic ability with computer models that havn't been run yet. Therefore he knows I'm right. He's on a mission, he's not going to behave until I premantly shut up. He's made that clear several times. Why would anyone care so deeply about what I've done and what I'm proving if it wasn't true? Who is paying him, that would be a bigger question. I'd sure love to find out and so would the rest of CTC. It would give instant credibility to what I've already proven. Out of all the weather forecasters in the blogosphere, why attack me? Why dedicate so much time and energy in attacking me if what I'm doing is "junk science" by the scientific community? Maybe it's because I'm the only one with a theory and has shown that I can look 7-10 days into the future to see the outcomes of what the USAF is doing currently? It's just a lot of unanswered questions at motivation level at this point.
Updating items Wed May 30, 2007 7:24 pm
Latest computer models show low pressure projected in nearly the same location for the 12Z Jun 1 2007 time frame. We hit the entire change in that model and successfully forecasted around what the USAF was doing to the weather. We used model data and combined it with current Satellitte analysis to determine what the USAF intentions were. Our next feat will be to see if this energy ejects on Jun 4,2007. There will also be another major pattern change on Jun 8/9,2007. It should get very warm in the Northeastern US. That will be a 15 day forecast. Will recap Friday. **** Also look for heavy spraying across the Southeastern US starting Friday and lasting through Monday. It will be a clear/milky white type spray. It's the Air Force's rain inducing spray. It will be different from some of the other types of chem's you've seen. **** I did some research into how accurate the models are... I think these graphics clearly demonstrate their abilities at the longer ranges. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/images/hpcvrf/rmsmax.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/images/hpcvrf/rmsmin.gif
Fri Jun 01, 2007 3:37 pm
Here are the final maps for June 1,2007 @ 12Z. Notice we caught the USAF spraying across Southern Canada 8 days ago and caught about 90% of the entire change.The initial model we studied 7.5 days ago.
We catch the USAF spraying Southern Canada... 18hours later
final tallies
The rain has begun in ernest over the Southeastern US. Florida is the target today.
Caught Red Handed Fri Jun 01, 2007 5:00 pm
[color=red]USAF Caught Red Handed....[/color]
No mystery where this tropical storm came from...
000WTNT32 KNHC 012035TCPAT2BULLETINTROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 1NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007500 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007
...TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUEDFOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATONBEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OFKEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THATTROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREAWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THATTROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCHAREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLEINLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUEDBY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 320MILES...520 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUALTURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ISEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFOREBARRY REACHES THE COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KMMAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...AREPOSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THECENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.
BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERNGEORGIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENTTOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANECENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100PM EDT.
$$FORECASTER AVILA
No comments:
Post a Comment